Sunday, 18 December 2016

Optimal Harvesting Model For An Age Broiler Chicken Population



ABSTRACT
This research was carried out to determine an efficient optimal sustainable harvesting policy, for an age-structural broiler chicken population. Using the leslies model, the population are grouped into three age classes of 6 weeks interval, hatchery, matured, older classes. The dynamic of the population was investigated by finding the eigenvalue and eigenvector of the leslies matrix of the broiler chicken population and develop an optimal sustainable harvesting policy for the population. The dominant eigenvalue was  =12.652 and  the corresponding eigenvector indicate that in the long run the population will consist of 94% of hatchery, 5.6% of mature and only 4.6% of older chicken. The optimal sustainable harvesting policy was 99.3% of the hatchery and all other chicken.



CHAPTER ONE
                                                             INTRODUCTION
            1.1BACKGROUND OF STUDY
Fifty years ago, scientist were beginning to recognize that many renewable resources, once plentiful and seemingly limitless, were in decline stock were diminishing and increasing amount of effort were required to maintain harvest level.


At time biologist played the leading role in model design and analysis; primarily focused on poultry chicken, only later would economist engage in this discussion and convincible articulate the role economic behavior played in the problem and potential role economic institution could play in the solution (Jay Fulbright, Jay Glover) open access resources tend to over exploited Charles (1936) and management action are usually necessary in order to achieve sustainably use of renewable resources. 

Optimal harvesting strategies are management tools which help to decide how the annual harvesting from chicken should be adjusted to in response to stock population to obtain sustainable maximum yield (SMY).In population ecology and economic, SMY is theoretically, the largest yield that can be taken from a species stock over and indefinite period.

The world’s poultry farming fleeting are losing 50billion U$D each year through depleted stock and poor poultry farming management UN report, (2008).The report produced jointly by the world bank and UN food and Agriculture (FAO), assent that half of the world’ poultry farming fleet could be scrapped off with no change of production.

Chicken and other poultry farming product form an import sources of food, In particular protein for mankind. The role of poultry is because farming product is still rising, because land for agricultural has been over exploited to a large extent. But although an increasing demand for poultry is kept under modern and more hygienic Condition has been observed. Moreover the recent spate of diseases among livestock and poultry causing mankind to seek for other alternates sources of proteins hence, there is need to control the stock in order to optimize harvest.

The control and optimal yield will require a series of political and technological steps like binding international agreement on size and structure of poultry farming stock or limit to equipment and modification of equipment. Based on reliable data, it should be possible to give detailed recommendation for poultry farming industry so that at the long run, the production can be optimized.

Due to high population growth in Africa (WORLD HEALTH ORGANISATION) and growing income, the demand for poultry meat has significantly increased in recent year across large part of the continent. According to estimate by the USAID (United state agency for internal development), this trend is very likely to continue over the next few years. Therefore, the consumption of poultry will increase by 200% between 2010 and 2020, for at least some countries in sub-Saharan Africa Obi 2003, USDA (2013)

One Africa country where trend can clearly be seen is Nigeria. Nigeria is one of the largest countries in Africa with total geographical area of 923768square kilometer Manyong et.al (2005). It estimate population was 1745million people in 2013, and its population growth rate is 3% per annum USDA (2013).
In contest to rapid population growth in Nigeria, food production has not followed suit over the last 50years, Wiggin and Keats (2013). Nevertheless, the sector is particularly important in that it has generated employment and contributes GDP and export revenue earning. Hence agriculture constitute one of the most important subsector of the economy, employing nearly three quarter of Nigeria work force Philip et.al (2009), Adene and Oguntade (2006).

The Nigerian poultry industry in particular has been rapidly expanding in recent years and therefore one of the most commercialized capitalized subsector of Nigeria agriculture. USDA 2013; Adene and Oguntade (2006) the popularity of poultry production can be explained by the fact that poultry has many advantages over other livestock. Poultry birds are good converter of feed into useable protein in meat. The production cost per unit remains relatively low, and the return on investment is high, therefore farmer need a relatively small amount of capital to start a poultry farm. Furthermore, poultry meat is very tender and acceptability to consumers is high regardless of their religious beliefs. Also, the product cycle is quite short, so capital is not tied up over a long period.

Despite these positive aspects, poultry production has not been keeping pace with rapidly increasing domestic consumption the domestic shortfall is estimated at 25000MT per annum, Rothschild (2002).
This lagging increase in domestic production can be explained by the fact that most producers in Nigeria still employ traditional rural poultry farming system, although an increasing demand for poultry kept under modern and more hygienic condition has been observe. 

Rural poultry farming is by convention by a subsistence system comprising stocks of non standard breeds or mixed strain of types and ages. A majority of the farmers that operates in these traditional, small-scale structures often, these farming systems are characterized by outdated barn equipment and production techniques and inadequate hygiene management .In addition; producers suffer from a weak feed industry and poor market access as a result of inadequate infrastructure.  Adene and oguntade (2006), Aleabi and isaba (2003)

Research has been one key to the success growth of poultry farming. Scientist also seeking to improve the production and management of all poultry farm resources in many that benefit users and promote a healthy environment. Some example include
        
        1.  
A vaccination strategy must be adapted to the local requirement based on proper
diagnosis and epidemiological factors. As there is a seasonal occurrence of ND (Newcastle Diseases) it is advisable to vaccinate the chicks within the first 1weeks after hatching with boosters every 1week thereafter.

        2.    A thermo-stable ND vaccine is an important prerequisite to reduce the cost for the
Cold chain Propagation of the 12-vaccine is done in chicken eggs. Thermo stability of the freeze dried formulation is estimated at a minimum of one year at 4 degrees Celsius. The production of 100 dose vial qualities should be encouraged to accommodate use to family poultry owners.

       3.  Quality assurance, both production and in application is important to ensure the
Efficiency of the vaccination programmed. The production laboratory must avoid contamination and seek optimum dilution of the virus suspension in a protective buffer. The proper application and vaccination coverage should be monitored by serology (ELISA)

       4. 
Cost recovery must be included in the vaccination program. The production cost
Of the vaccine in rather low with main cost streaming from bottling and distribution investment for quality assurance and the monitoring of protection in the field should also be included in the total vaccine price

       5. 
Diagnostics are important component of diseases control and upgrading infrastructure
and diagnostic .Capability of the responsible institution are essential only the constant monitoring of the diseases situation and the virus strain circulating will allow timely and effective intervention.


1.2 Improvement of poultry management has a significant influence on the reduction of chick mortality
            1. Creep feeding and assessment of  local commercial feed resources for the first day to
6weeks reduced mortality remarkably. Feed supplementation of chicks improves the growth of chicks and in parallel resistance to infection and parasites .At the same time it reduces the movement and thus the risk due to predators.

           2.  
Improving housing had a positive impact due to reduced predators access specifically
at night.

           3.  
Management training of the small holder was considered essential. As backyard
Poultry farming is seen as a “hobby”. Investment in this activity is uncommon. The public must be made aware that small investment in vaccination and improved management can yield significant returning in increased income.
         
            1.2.1 Conclusion of the final research was:        

1.
Strategic ND vaccination reduced mortality up to 80%.

Partial budget analysis showed as substantial return on investment for ND vaccination   of village chicken in all countries.

2.
Only in ND vaccinated birds did feed supplementation and anti-parasitic treatment
Show and additional positive return.

1.3  Problem Statement.
A problem demand and supply computed from a brace line demand of 30,000 tons shows an increasing deficit in supply. Thus the need of augment use of Leslie matrix is needed to maximize and sustain an optimal harvesting model of broiler chicken population.

1.4 AIM AND OBJECTIVES
In this project, the aim of this work is to formulate a matrix model on how broiler chicken can reach a maximum output by the use of Leslie matrix model, in other for poultry farmers to reach an optimal harvesting yield. The following objectives are:
1.   To formulate a Leslie matrix for poultry broiler chicken population. (Gallus Domesticus).
2.  To determine the dynamic system of broiler chicken harvesting, due to their seasonal changes (Gallus Domesticus).
3.    To determine an optimal harvesting model for the poultry broiler chicken population.
          
           1.5 SCOPE AND LIMITATION
A desire goal for management of any renewable sources to find a configuration from which one harvest the growth of regular interval thereby producing and returning the population to it previous configuration and also to harvest a regular schedule in such a way that harvest is the same and the rate of the population after harvesting is always the same, therefore we concentrate on harvesting or renewable in general, the usefulness of broiler chicken and its potential to solving Kaduna chicken meat demand deficit problem of 30000 tons.
             
               1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF STUDY
Agriculture of broiler chicken has been booming in recent times USDA,2013 and Adene and Oguntade (2013), however one of the main drawback associated with broiler chicken farming is antibody level against Gambaro diseases and Newcastle diseases in poultry. To solve this problem, a strategic vaccination and a treatment programmed should be introduced for poultry farmer with strong vaccination.

A vaccine production (preferably Thermos table) with suitable quality control measures should be supported and vials of 100 dose quantities would be advantageous after hatching  chicks should be removed to allow creep feeding in order to increase the clutching cycle. It also identifies opportunities and constraint of poultry harvesting in the study area. The information will help government, farmer traders and other, who need this for different purposes.


Urban agriculture and livestock especially chicken keeping which seems to be viable intervention. Strategy for the urban poor to earn income and grow their own  food. However in Nigeria, policy makers and the government are to  support  this sector. All these measures are observed at finding a solution that can be made readily available to farmers by finding an optimal harvesting policy for an age structured poultry broiler chicken population.
      
1.7 BRIEF HISTORY OF AHMADU BELLO COLLEGE OF ANIMAL SCIENCE, KADUNA
           The popular mando college started in 1951,as a livestock services training centre, Kaduna to train key personnel in veterinary services, principally fields assistant in livestock management for the entire northern region.
           
The essential service centre later became veterinary field station that comprise the veterinary public health, trypanosomiasis and poultry and poultry production units alongside a veterinary investigation laboratory.

CAAS was transferred to IAR/ABU in 1971 along with other sister school of agriculture at samara, kabba and bakura to form the present day division of Agriculture colleges (DAC). The division which was established in accordance with statue 16 of the laws of Ahmadu Bello university, Zaria and has graduated thousands of student who are now working at national/international organizations.

The programmes run by the colleges are:-
            National Diploma (ND) Animal Health and production technology
            Higher National diploma (HND) Animal Health Technology
            Higher National Diploma (HND) Animal Production Technology
            PRE-ND Science
 

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