Wednesday, 15 June 2016

Forecasting Techniques As A Tool For Effective Corporate Performance


ABSTRACT
The topic forecasting techniques as a tool for effective corporate performance. The study focused affection on what is likely to happen in future and determine what course of action to be taken kin order to obtain the desired result.
         

Data were collected through the structured questionnaire besides; some data were tested, which gives meaning to the underlying nature of data.

          The research studies contain five chapters. Chapter one deals with the general introduction of the study, purpose, of the study, scope of the study, aims and objectives of the study, limitation to the study, definition of the terms (historical background of Nigeria breweries plc) Chapter two deals with the literature reviews
         

Chapter three consists of the research methodology, source of data, presentation, testing of hypothesis.
Chapter four is all about data analysis and data presentations
Chapter five comprises summary, recommendation, conclusion and bibliography.
Therefore, forecasting techniques should be seen as a mean of achieving organization goals.
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title page                                                                                           
Certification                                                                                              
Dedication                                                                                         
Acknowledgement                                                                             
Proposal                                                                                            
Table of Contents                                                                              


CHAPTER ONE
1.0 Introduction                                                                            
1.1 Problem of the Study                                                               
1.2 Aims and Objective of the Study                                              
1.3 Significance of the Study
1.4 Hypothesis                                                                               
1.5 The Scope of the Study                                                            
1.6 Limitations of the Study                                                          
1.7 Organizational structure of Nigeria Breweries Plc (Nb Plc)       
1.8 Brief Historical background of Nigeria Breweries Plc (Nb Plc)  
1.9 Definition of Terms                                                                  

CHAPTER TWO
2.0 Literature Review
2.1 Definition of Forecasting                                                                    
2.2 The Market Analysis                                                                
2.3 The Sales Forecasting                                                              
2.4 Method of forecasting Techniques                                            
  2.5  Definition of Forecast Techniques, Business Organization
          of Management Planning and the Effective Performances        


CHAPTER THREE
3.0 Research Methodology
3.1Sources of Data                                                                       
3.2Population Size and Sample Size
3.2.1 Population Size                                                                      
3.2.2 Sample Size                                                                             
3.3 Hypothesis Testing Method                                                     
3.4 Reliability                                                                                
3.5 Validity                                                                                    


CHAPTER FOUR
4.0 Findings and Data Analysis
4.1 Data Analysis                                                                          
4.2 Research Question Testing and Interpretations                       


CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
5.1Summary                                                                                 
5.2 Recommendations                                                                   
Conclusion                                                                              
Bibliography                                                                         
Questionnaire                                                                          



CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
This research project has become a thing of interesting because a food forecast is what is likely to happen in the future and determine what cause of action to be taken in order to obtain the desire result or goals.
          Forecasting involves using historical data and projecting into the future and some mathematics models. Cit may require the combination of the past and present data. This mathematical model can be adjusted by a management good judgment.
          Forecasting as a tool creates the opportunity for a manager to calculate and or predict some future events or coordination hence, we say forecasting offers the best available basis for management expectation of the future. This can be applied in the area of manpower requirement, personal forecast, corporate strategy and planning sales (demand forecast) production, economic development, technological forecast, competition and social forecasting.
          The use of forecasting techniques in a business organization for an effective performance can not be over emphasized.  Plan can be made only by the basis of what is expected to happen in the future, both within the organization and in the word outside.
          This means that likely events and conditions must be forecast before planning for the attainment of effective performance can be paid down. It is also a useful tool to a manager in planning as its helps him with necessary planning assumptions of premises and this, consequently avoiding the tending of shooting in the dark.
         
 
Good forecast are essential parts of efficient service and manufacture operations.  They are also importance modeling tools and both strategic and tactical decision making.
         

Forecasting is an integral part of human activities. That is every human being make forecast. It should however  be noted that for an organization  to be effective and  efficient, cit should forecast and predict what is likely happen to the business ion future.
          

 More so, decision making is based on the available information, which often tales the form estimate of future values, or variable estimate of the future are necessary for planning stock control, capital expenditure and cast budgeting.
         

Forecasting is an important tool for handling decision relating to the future state of the world and business organizations.  If the forecasting is correct, then the best decision and planning would  be made. Management’s decision, both on policy and day matters are often concerned with estimating the future course of some events. For instance, a manufacture has to estimate his customers. Likely requirements in order to decide on his stocks policy. Also, a contractor has to estimate the cost of businesses can afford to avoid the process of forecasting by just wanting to see what will happen and then taking their chances.


Effective planning in both the short and long run depends on as forecast of demand for the company’s product.


1.1 PROBLEM OF THE STUDY 
During the pilot study of Nigeria brewer’s Plc (NB Plc), it was discovered that there was a larger inventory of finished products of assorted drinks produced by the company.
         

This is doust would have reduced the projected profit income of the company arising  from cast of storages, overheads, depreciation, and trying down capital that might otherwise be used for other profitable ventures. The need therefore arise that investigation be made as to reasons behind the large stock of unsold finished products realizing that in value decrease per-time.
          

Before, embarking on production of a particular product, a lot must be involved in terms of forecasting  the need of necessities of the people.  Since the product must be able


To satisfy particular want of customers, determine the forget market, estimating the set up cost of machinery and equipment (capital out lay) and over head to establish the possible unit cost of the product. This will insist the  planner to establish its possible target market and quantity of productions.


The large pile of finished goods in (Nigeria breweries plc).
NB Plc therefore calls for investigation as to the accuracy of otherwise of the project production volume planned by the company. Since the continue existence of the company depends largely on customers patronage from where the expected profit will come from.


1.2AIMS AND OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The aims and objectives of the study are to example the effective performance of forecasting technique of a business organization.

  • A.To estimate the timescale for important event in relation to the companies decision making

  • B.To determine the intermediate planning for existing facilities. This is called production planning forecast

  • C.To ensure that forecasting lead to a major orientation of company production policy to avoid situations that appear to pos threat or to seek new opportunity on the area of research and development of technology.

  • D.To ascertain the specific sale potential of goods and service of the organization in various markets.

  • E.To determine the short range scheduling of existing products to be manufacture through the existing equipment.

1.3 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The significance of the study is to establish the importance of a good forecast in any business organization and to attempt  to obtain the best possible forecast so as to  achieve the organizational objectives. The significance therefore include the following:

A.To Whom It May Concern: critically examine the best forecasting   techniques used ion achieving the objectives of the organization.

B.To provide management with information and estimate on which it can base planning decisions.’

C.To provide useful suggestion and recommendation when necessary use how best to select on the past and presence data collected in order to prevent problems that might arise at any given time.

1.4 HYPOTHESIS AND RESEARCH QUESTIONS
          A Hypothesis:- this is a tentative statement made by researcher who believes that there are certain relationship between the given variables.
          The Webster new international dictionary of English language defines the hypothesis as “a preposition condition or principles which is assume perhaps without belief in order to draw its logical consequences and by this method to test it in facts which are known or maybe “determined.
          The hypothesis can also be defined as a tentative statement specifying particular relationship between two or more variables.


The following hypothesis is formulated:
HO: Organization does not make use of good and visible forecast on more power required by           the organization for attainment of its goals.
HO: Culture dopes not have any effect in the effectiveness of forecasting.
HI:  Culture has any effect on the effect on the effectiveness of forecasting.


RESEARCH QUESTION
Hypothesis is a conjuncture, a tentative statement it a predication of what can be seen in the world of reality, and this prediction is made from world theory.

It should Howe ever be noted that both hypothesis and research question perform basically the same functions. They help us to generate reliable data with respect to the research problem. Thus, the following research question are formulated


1. Does the organization make good and available forecasts on man power requires for the attainment of the organization goals?

2.Does the management of the organization assesses and defines well the type and volume of activities to attain the desired result (effective performance) of the organization interms of manpower requirement?     
3.Has integration of departmental activities aided the effective performance of corporate strategy?
4.Does the corporate strategy of the organization lead to the attainment of effective performance?
5.Does the sale forecast of the organization determine the scale of activities needed to satisfy the expected market so as to enhance effective performance?
6.Has good incentive von employees any relationship with the producer of the organization to meet the requirement of the production?
7.Is there adequate supply of needed materials to aid timely production?
8.Has inflation any effect on forecasting effectiveness?
9.Does the organization makes forecast and more along effectively with the trend to change in terms of technology?
10.Does the organization embark on aggressive advertisement and promotion to out weight competent in the industry?
11.Has the organization competitors?
12.Does the organization take consideration the charges in consumer tastes when making forecast


1.5    THE SCOPE OF THE STUDY
This study would have covered other business organizations but for time factors, it will not be able to close.
Therefore, the study will be limited to Nigeria Breweries Plc (NB Plc). Effort shall be made to know to what extent the organization has contributed to forecasting techniques as stool for effective performance of business organization.


1.6 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
For the purpose of the research, it is  for seen that there May be some hindrance s in effectively caring out the research.
          The following are like problems to be faced in the conduct of the research, especially when collecting data.
1.The organization May refuse to disclose some vital information sight be help to us for lack of trust and fear of being exposed.

2.This to a very large extent can limit the ability of the researcher to handle the project to a satisfactory standard.

3.There is l9kely to be a problem of finance. There may not be enough funds to meet the financial requirement of this research. Following the end of lice prices of petroleum products in the country, there is likely to be an increase the costly. Also photocopying the relevant material may much money.


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