Saturday, 14 May 2016

Time Series Analysis On Forecasting Monthly Consumption Of Feeds And Eggs Production


ABSTRACT
This project is carried out to investigate the consumption of feeds (Layers marsh) and eggs production and also to evaluate the importance of annual investment on egg production at Niyya farms limited, Kaduna State between 2005 and 2014 with a view to explain the trend and to describe control  and predict the future values of the variables. 


The statistical analysis employed were the time series which consist of estimation of trend, time plot, decomposition of data, seasonal variation and forecasting were also carried out. With acquired information from the analysis, It is observed that there exist a significant relationship between the consumption of feeds (layers marsh and egg production) Finally, the forecasted value for the consumption of feeds and egg production collected increased as the year progresses.


TABLE CONTENT

Cover page           
Declaration 
Certification    
Dedication  
Acknowledgement   
Abstract      
Table of content   

CHAPTER ONE
1.1     Background of the Study        

1.2     Poultry Farming      

1.3     Agriculture 

1.3.1  Components of Agriculture     

1.4     Statement of the Problem                  

1.5     Aims and Objectives of the Study     

1.6     Significance of the study                 

1.7     Scope of the Study        

1.8     Definition of Terms     

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1     Methodology        

2.2     The concept of agricultural products          

2.3     Empirical literature      

2.4      Agricultural products and their consumption prior to the current global recession in Nigeria.    


2.5     Agricultural Theory of Business Cycle       


CHAPTER THREE
METHODOLOGY

3.1.    Introduction         

3.2     Source of Data     

3.3     Uses and Objective of Time Series Analysis        

3.3.1  Components of Time series     

3.4     Model of a Time Series 

3.5     Estimation of Trend       

3.6     Elimination Trends        

3.7     Estimation of Seasonal Variation     

3.8     Deseasonalization of Data       

3.9     Estimation of Cyclical Variation     

3.10   Estimation of Irregular Variation      

3.11   Seasonal Indexes  

3.12   Forecasting Procedure

CHAPTER FOUR
4.1.    Data Presentation     

4.2     Data analysis            

4.2.1  Times series analysis of Poultry Feed (Kg) and Layers Prouduction (In Crates) 4.3.    Evaluation of Forecasting Techniques        

CHAPTER FIVE

5.1.    Summary    

5.2     Conclusion 

5.3.    Recommendation

CHAPTER ONE


INTRODUCTION

          1.1    Background of the Study


Agriculture had been in existence since before the British Colonization when the white men made use of the black men as source of manpower for cultivating planted scare acres of land permanently planted with cash crops. Such crops planted on plantation farming include cocoa, tea, cotton, sugar, tobacco, rubber, timber, sugar cane, fruits and other cash crops. Immediately after our independent in 1960, we started operating an agriculture which provide job opportunity for 85% of average Nigeria and also serve as a source of generating income which everybody where enjoying with their family. 

However, the oil fortune in 1970s made Africans as its center piece. The statement that African is the center piece of Nigeria foreign policy means that African constitutes a relevant and important regional political community as far as Nigeria is concerned. It is seen that in formulating low foreign policy, Nigeria is primarily preoccupied with African affairs.


As a result of this, oil production had been established in the country and it was exporting over 170,000 barrels per day (6(pd)(Ekene,1999). It was Gulf Oil Company that first struck offshore oil on the Okan structure of the then Bendel State in 1964.



    Despite the stupendous positive contributions of petroleum to the Nigeria    economy, the black gold  (oil) has equal negative contributions like:

                i. One of the immediate consequences of the discovery and expirations of oils is decline in food production.

              ii. One of the political woes of the discovery of oil in Nigeria is political instability. The frequent coups, counter coups, change of government and even the civil war that occurred in Nigeria had oil under-tones.

              iii. Shortage of raw materials as another negative effect of agriculture as a result of the discovery and exportation of petroleum in Nigeria.

               iv. Many oil producing areas in Nigeria have been eroded as a result of oil exportation with the fear in many quarters of possible earthquake occurring in those areas.

              
v.  And finally, the discovery of oil in commercial quality in Nigeria led to rapid monetary expansion that was not matched with rapid domestic productivity.


Because of these negative contributions, Nigeria has lost many things pertaining to our natural resources especially in the area of soil for agricultural practicing.




          1.2    Poultry Farming

Poultry farming is the raising of domesticated birds such as chicken, ducks, turkeys and geese, for the purpose of farming meat or eggs for food. Poultry are farmed in great numbers with chicken being the most numerous more than 50 billion chickens are raised annually as a source of food, for both their meat and their eggs chickens raised for eggs are usually called layers while chickens raised for meat are often called broiler. In the US the natimal organization over seeing poultry production in the food and drug administration (FDA). In the UK, the national organization is the Department, food and rural affairs (Defra).



Intensive and Alternative Poultry Farming

According to the world watch institute, 74 percent of the world’s poultry meat and 68 percent of eggs are produced in ways that are described as intensive one alternative of intensive poultry farming is free range production. Poultry producers routinely use nationally approved medications, such as antibiotics, in feed or drinking water, to treat disease ot to prevent disease outbreaks. Some FDA approved medical are also approved for improved feed utilization.




World Chicken Population

The food and agriculture organization of the United Nation estimated that in 2005 there were nearly sixteen  billion chicken in the world, counting a total population of 15,838, 900,000 the figures from the global livestock production and Health atlas  for 20007  were as follows.

1.   China (3,860,000,000)

2.   United State ( 1,970,000,000)

3.   Indonesia (1,200,000,000)

4.   Brazil  (1,100,000,000)

5.   Pakistani (691,998,000)

6.   India (648,830,000)

7.   Mexic0 (540,000,000)

8.   Russia (340,000,000)

9.   Japan (286,000,000)

10. Iran (280,000,000)

11. Turkey (250,000,000)

12. Bangladesh (172,630,000)

13. Nigeria (143,500,000)



In 2011 the annual chicken population factory farms was estimated it 50 billion raised in the European Union, over 9 billion raised in the United State and more than 7 billion in China.

          


           1.3    Agriculture


The term agriculture is derived from two Latin words "again" meaning field and "culture" meaning cultivation Ekene, (1999). By this statement, agriculture means field cultivation. However, a complete definition of agriculture is simply the production of crops and rearing of animals for man's use. In other words, agriculture is defined as the deliberate effort made by man to use the soil, cultivate crops and rear animals for food and other purposes.



It also involves the sales of produce from agriculture, because production is not complete until the product gets to the final consumer.



Agriculture is the most dominant occupation employing about 60 - 70 percent of the total population of West Africa.  Although subsistence agriculture is practiced in this part of the world, yet it will be an over statement to say that it is the life wire of economics of the West African Countries.

     
           1.3.1 Components of Agriculture


          Agriculture is made of the following components:

               i. Livestock: This type of Agriculture involves rearing of domestic animals which includes: goats, sheep, pigs ,cattle, horses, donkeys and poultry.

                ii. Cultivation: This deals with the planting of crops and plants that are of economic values.

     
            1.4 Statement of the
Problem


This research is based on LAYERS, which are under poultry livestock, which comprises of the major components of Agriculture practice. Before we discuss on layers, what do we understand by the word poultry in livestock?

Poultry: This refers to group of birds reared for food and other purposes. These include domestic fowl, turkey, goose, guinea fowl and dock. These birds are reared for meat, egg and manure. They are non-ruminants.

    
       1.5 Aims and Objectives of the Study


           i. To investigate the effect of feed (layers mash) and egg production of layers over the year 2005-2014.

             ii. To determine the combination of feeds i.e. layers mash that will increase production of eggs and also give the necessary nutrient required.

              iii. Quarterly consumption of feeds (layers mash) was analyzed and investigated.

              iv. Forecasting of the future effect of feeds (layers mash) and eggs production for the next one year.

 

      1.6 Significance of the study


            The focus on this research is to advice the Niyya Farm Nigeria Limited on how they can   improved  their consumption of feeds and egg production in the poultry farm.

 

      1.7 Scope of the study


The data for this project cover a period of 10 years, which is made available on monthly basis (January - December, 2005 - 2014). It comprises of monthly consumption of feeds and egg production of layers. It also involves the existence and meaning of agriculture, the oil fortunes in the 1970`s., the negative contribution of oil fortunes.

        1.8 Definition of Terms


Cock:                   Male fowl above one year of age

Cockerel:             Male fowl below one year of age

Hen:                     Female fowl above one year of age

Pullet:                   Female fowl (0-6 weeks old)

Capen:                 A castrated male fowl

Canonization:        Process of castration in fowl

Trending:              Act of mating in fowl

Grower:                Fowl between 7-19 weeks of age

Broiler:                 Fowl rear for meat

Clutch:                 A group of young chicks

Flock:                  A group of fowls

Chicken:               Meat of a fowl

SEE >> HOW TO DOWNLOAD THE COMPLETE PROJECT (CHAPTER 1-5) NOW

No comments:

Post a Comment


Gain Admission To 200Level Without Jamb-UTME Through IJMB Program, Any University, Any Course. Forms Now On Sale. 08034801226, 08065101775.



Feel Free To Ask Your Questions Using The Below Comment Box.